Pop Idol and Democracy

One-and-a-half year ago there was an incident in the Norwegian Pop Idol contest that sparked public debate: The indiscutable favorite, Anh Vu (picture), failed to qualify to the next programme at a relatively early stage. Viewers were enraged over this "unjust" outcome, while the judges bluntly commented that they had to acknowledge "the voice of the people". Both arguments, however, are flawed.

The first argument, that the outcome was "unjust", fails to take into account that everybody in position of a mobile phone (and too much money than to know what to do with it) were free to vote for their favored candidate. Still, as Anh was a clear favorite to become the Pop Idol and was widely considered as the best candidate, viewers who would otherwise have supported her, probably failed to vote because they were sure that she would qualify to the next stage. Without intending to besmirch economic theory with stains from popular culture, one could classify this inaction as a collective action problem. A rational calculus of this situation would find that, considering the costs of voting and the (perceived) likelihood of Anh to qualify, it would be rational for an individual viewer not to vote. Probably many individuals arrived at this conclusion, with the unexpected consequence that Anh received too few votes.

Now for the second argument, that Anh's departure was in accordance to the people's will. Well, did the outcome reflect people's will? Obviously not, considering the posterior reactions. However, when several viewers failed to vote for Anh, the mainstream favorite, radical opinions weighed disproportionally heavy. Political science teaches that radical voters are more easily mobilized because they on average have a more ardent passion for their cause than moderate voters. Therefore centrist parties are anxious to "get out the vote" from ordinary citizens, who usually hold moderate opinions. When these voters stay home, then, a smaller group of radical voters will have a disproportionately large say in elections. Thus, the political landscape may be more radical and polarized than one would expect from the demographic landscape. Former US president Richard Nixon coined the expression "the silent majority", which refers to the large number of people in a country or group who do not express their opinions publicly. This argument may hold in several contexts, but may also be abused in order to justify one's own opinions in the light of the public's general will, famously promoted by Rousseau. Still, Anh Vu obviously was a victim of the radical opinions' disproportionately large say in the Pop Idol contest. Pretty trivial, but still a lesson in the workings of democracy.

Even if Pop Idol can provide useful reminders of the democratic system to the people of established democracies, the same competition can give people living under autocratic regimes a taste of democracy. As happened recently in communist China, reporting The Economist: "In a country conspicuously lacking in democratic voice, this rare opportunity to vote and make a difference - even if only to the outcome of the 'Mengniu Sour Yoghurt Super Voice Girl' competition - has inspired a remarkable debate. The fact that around 400 million Chinese (almost 1/3 of the country's population) has contributed to spark a debate about participatory and representative government in a country ruled by party officials not subject to popular election or consultation. Still, most Chinese seem to follow the show mostly for reasons familiar to Norwegians, Britons, Americans and other nationalities exposed to Idol contests: 'Super Girl', as the show is commonly known, appealed mainly because of its racy format (at least until the authorities began insisting on more downbeat folksy songs) and the pleasure that many enjoy from watching amateur singers embarass themselves. And the final outcome of the contest also sounds remarkably familiar, as commented by the loyal paper China Daily: How come an imitation of a democratic system ends up selecting the singer who has the least ability to carry a tune?

Nothing's new under the sun, I'd say. Just tune in to the next Norwegian Pop Idol contest. Or observe the outcome of our recent parliamentary elections.